On the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, the 2024 presidential election was called for Donald Trump, making him the 47th president of the U.S. upon his inauguration in January 2025, after previously having served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. The big question for many businesses throughout the country is how this election will affect their respective markets, and the agriculture and horticulture sectors are no different. Here’s a look at how some of Trump’s purported plans and policies are likely to impact U.S. agriculture and horticulture.
Tariffs in a Second Trump Administration
The main point of concern that many farmers and growers have with Donald Trump retaking the presidency is his habit of promoting tariffs during his months on the campaign trail, and the impact they could have on the economy if he follows through on such a promise.
According to the New York Times, “Trump imposed tariffs in 2018 and 2019 on $300 billion of Chinese imports, a punishment he wielded in order to get China to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S. His action triggered a trade war between Washington and Beijing, with China slapping retaliatory tariffs on American products. It also shifted more of its soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina, hurting U.S. soybean farmers who had long relied on the Chinese market.”
“The prospect of additional tariffs doesn’t sound good,” says Leslie Bowman, a farmer from Chambersburg, PA. “The idea of tariffs is to protect U.S. industries, but for the agricultural industry, it’s going to hurt.”
Trump has said that his plans include putting tariffs as high as 50% on imported goods from overseas countries, and has even mentioned the possibility of 200% and 400% tariffs during some of his speeches. Many economists warn that the implementation of such tariffs would “ignite inflation, slow economic growth, and harm the industries,” that Trump has campaigned on helping.
“A trade war would not only reduce the value of production for U.S. farmers but also have a ripple effect throughout the U.S. economy,” states a report on the effects of a potential China trade war commissioned by the American Soybean Association and National Corn Growers Association.
However, Duane Lowry, the founder of Crop Production Science, an agriculture risk management consultancy company, spoke to S&P Global about a different, possible path, stating, “The common expectation around a Trump victory is the return of tariffs, but it might be wise to remember that under Trump, China signed a major trade deal for increased import of US agricultural products.”
Still, likely wanting to ensure a good relationship and the ability to communicate the wants and needs of their industries with the incoming administration, both the National Farmers Union and the American Farm Bureau Federation have released statements congratulating the president-elect.
“Across the nation, family farmers and ranchers are grappling with unprecedented challenges, from escalating input costs and severe weather disasters to the absence of a renewed five-year Farm Bill. We see both urgency and opportunity to address these issues with long-term solutions that ensure fair and competitive markets, sustainability, and economic vitality in our communities,” reads the NFU’s statement.
“Now that the American people have spoken, it’s time to put politics aside and begin the work of ensuring families nationwide can prosper. Among the most pressing issues in rural America is the need for a new, modernized farm bill. The two-year delay is unacceptable. The new administration must also address the impending tax hikes, which would crush many of America’s farmers and ranchers when stacked on top of inflation, high supply costs, and market instability. Another big issue on farmers’ minds is the labor shortage and skyrocketing costs,” reads the AFBF’s statement.
Trump and the New Farm Bill
Speaking of the Farm Bill, we’ve previously covered the evolving aspects of its current iteration, which technically expired last year, but has been kept alive through Congressional extensions, according to Sentient Media. Therefore, unless the bill is settled before Trump takes office, or further extensions are permitted, a new farm bill will be on the agenda for the incoming president.
However, Jonathan Coppess, who teaches agricultural policy at the University of Illinois, says the matter might be beneath the president, regardless of who was coming into office, stating that “Farm policy doesn’t rise to the level of the presidential campaign. If it even gets an offhand mention somewhere during the campaign, that would be a surprise. It’s a big congressional effort, so the presidential campaigns, typically, they’re not too wrapped up in it.”
However, regarding Trump, who signed the 2018 Farm Bill into law during his previous time in office, Coppess indicates two key things to look out for regarding agriculture and the USDA in a second Trump term.
“First, a higher likelihood of more trade disputes and conflicts and challenges arising in a second Trump administration. Second, more payments to farmers, which can seem like a really important policy, but can have long-term consequences in that this could turn out to be more bad medicine over the long run.”
Still, Coppess expressed concern over the impacts if parts of Project 2025 are brought to a second Trump administration, citing the document’s aim of clearing out civil service and agency employees.
“Without some of the agency expertise, how do you run some of these programs? For example, crop insurance is extraordinarily complex. If you get mad and fire everybody that runs crop insurance, it’s gonna be hard to make the program function.”
Lastly, Coppess notes that the largest implication for the state of the Farm Bill rests on the party that takes control of both houses of Congress.
“If you had both chambers in Republican hands, I would expect a budget reconciliation effort that would probably cut a lot of things.”
However, there is the possibility that Democrats, with the loss of the White House and several Senate seats after the recent election, might be willing to negotiate and pass a bill before the end of the year, as their negotiation position will be much weaker next year.
Temporary Farmworkers and Immigration
The issue of labor has been an incredibly important concern for the agricultural and horticultural sectors for years, and continues, such as with the recent lawsuit filed against the Department of Labor challenging a new rule on H-2A temporary workers. As immigrants make up a very large percentage of active farm workers, a mass deportation initiative of both legal and illegal immigrants in the U.S., as remarked upon by Trump and Project 2025, could cause numerous issues in regard to growers finding temporary workers for their operations, as well as spike costs.
“If we don’t have agricultural people that come to do their work and we depend on them, then we have to hire people that really don’t want to work in the field, and we have to pay a lot more,” says Jose Ramirez, owner of El Paraiso Orchard to the Oregon Capital Chronicle, “Then we have to sell our product for a higher price. Otherwise, we’re not going to be growing here.”
Other Potential Areas of Impact in Agriculture and Horticulture
There are many additional areas of impact that could be affected by a second Trump administration, including:
What kind of positive or negative changes are you expecting and hoping for in your business and the industry at large under the upcoming Trump administration? Let us know in the comments below!
